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<text>Business Cycle Headlines for August, September, & October 1992</text>
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<text>41| 10/16/92| Consumer prices rise slim .2% 55| 10/15/92| Natural gas prices soar 55| 10/15/92| Producer price index post increase 49| 10/15/92| Retail sales post increases 49| 10/09/92| Retail salespick up in September 14| 10/02/92| Decline in new orders in mfg sector 17| 10/01/92| New home sales down 6.1% during August 26| 09/30/92| Consumer confidence fell 2.6 points in Sep 17| 09/28/92| Consumer spending dipped .1% in Aug 14| 09/28/92| Durable goods fell .1% in August 56| 09/25/92| Economy grew at rate of 1.5% in 2 Quart 17| 09/24/92| US Auto sales fell in mid September 47| 09/24/92| Fed Reserve Banks discern slow uneven improvement in economy 63| 09/22/92| Housing starts jump 10% in August 45| 09/18/92| Bush to lower mortgage rates on FHA 15yr mortgage 24| 09/18/92| US trade exports down 2.2% 24| 09/17/92| Industry output declines .5% 41| 09/14/92| Producer prices rose a scant 0.1% last month. 46| 09/11/92| Money supply expands 38| 09/10/92| Average yields in taxable market funds sank belo…52| 09/10/92| Corporations issued more than 3.5 billion of new…38| 09/09/92| Rates it new lows at auction 37| 09/08/92| GM promises union steps to preserve jobs to settle strike.14| 09/04/92| Factory orders fell 1.1% in July 42| 09/04/92| US worker output rose 2% (annual rate) in 2nd period. 49| 09/04/92| Retailers sales rose modestly during August. 43| 09/04/92| Lack of inventory buildup hampers recovery 24| 09/02/92| Purchaser's gauge dips. 23| 09/02/92| Value of construction falls. 50| 08/31/92| Personal income increases 0.1% over inflation. 40| 08/31/92| Domestic orders for machine tools rose 3% in July 24| 08/27/92| Durable goods orders dropped 3.4% in July 27| 08/21/92| Money supply expands 26| 08/17/92| Consumer's confidence declines in early Aug. 15| 08/13/92| Gold declines by $8.70 following CRB's lead 42| 08/12/92| Productivity up 2.3% 15| 08/11/92| Commodity Index Sinks to Six-Year Low (WSJ)17| 08/07/92| June Consumer Credit Contracted At 1.7% Annual Rate46| 08/07/92| Money Supply Expands (IBD)45| 08/06/92| M2 Growth 1.1% From 4Q Base; M3 Growth - 0.4% From 4Q Base49| 08/06/92| Wholesale Sales Rose 2.4% In June From May17| 08/05/92| Modest turndown in July retail sales indicates low consumer...35| 08/05/92| D&B Survey Says Business Failures Rose 16.8% In 1st Half46| 08/05/92| Boskin Sees No Inflation Threat From M1 Growth28| 07/31/92| National Bank Loans Down $1.91B In Latest Week45| 07/29/92| How to reap the benefits of falling rates (WSJ)50| 07/28/92| Wages, Benefits Grew by 0.8% in 2nd Qtr, Off From 0.9% in 1st (IBD)51| 07/28/92| Longer Treasury's Prices Rise as Investors Lose Fears of Inflation (WSJ)40| 07/27/92| Domestic Orders Spark June Rise For Machine Tools40| 07/24/92| U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rose 2.3% In June38| 07/03/92| City National Bank lowers prime interest rate to 6 percent 38| 07/02/92| First Fidelity Bancorp Cuts Prime Rate To 6% From 6.5%38| 07/02/92| Harris Trust Cuts Prime Rate To 6% From 6.5%38| 07/02/92| Federal Reserve Cuts Discount Rate To 3% From 3.5%42| 06/18/92| Productivity up 2.7% in 1st Q38| 12/20/91| Discount rate at 3.5%</text>
<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">The Business Cycle Headlines are abstracted from major business journals and assigned an event number from the Business Event list. </span><span class="style35">What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">The event id's assigned to these headlines trigger the highlighted buttons on the Business Cycle Monitor chart, thereby presenting a graphical "we are here!" view to the current business cycle.Credit is given to F. Rinaldi for the use of his "Align" XFCN which is used in the "Add Headline" feature of this card. (Click here to see headline list)</span></text>
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<text>1 | BA | Bear |Union negotiations concentrating on big current increases and cost of living increases2 | BA | Bear |Rising selling prices3 | MC | Bear |Reserve requirements increased4 | MC | Bear |Banks selling off securities or bidding for time deposits5 | BA | Bear |Projected financial ventures cancelled6 | MC | Bear |Downward sloping yield curve. Short-term 100+ basis points higher than long7 | MC | Bear |Interest rates rising.8 | BA | Bear |Customers of banks disintermediating9 | MC | Bear |Short term interest rates peak.10| BA | Bear |Profits decline11| MC | Bear |Bank loans stop rising12| MC | Bear |Short-term interest rates falling13| MC | Bear |Fed relaxing14| BA | Bear |New orders falling off15| BA | Bear |Falling raw materials costs16| MC | Bear |At least six months have passed since stock market peaked.17| BA | Bear |Consumer spending down.18| MC | Bear |Long-term interest rates peak.19| BA | Bear |Industrial financing volume about on par with utilities.20| MC | Bear |Yield on S&P 500 greater than 3.7%21| MC | Bear |Price-earnings ratios less than 14 times22| BA | Bear |Business formations down.23| BA | Bear |Construction work at low point24| BA | Bear |Industrial demand for consumable supplies and equipment drops25| MC | Bear |Gold equity stocks appreciating26| BA | Bear |Consumer confidence index falling27| MC | Bear |Actual money supply turns up28| MC | Bear |Bank loans shrinking29| BA | Bear |Significant news event may cause panic in stock market30| BA | Bear |Market news makes headlines and magazine covers31| MC | Bear |Premium demanded on corporate bonds greater than 1.5%32| BA | Bear |Advertisements in Barron’s stressing greed drop below 10 per issue. Advertisements stressing fear exceed 4 per issue.33| BA | Bear |Mood of popular magazine covers is bleak34| MC | Bear |Raw or actual money supply shrinks as central bank begins a policy of restraint35| BA | Bear |Bankruptcies at high level36| BA | Bear |Bank charge-offs high37| BA | Bear |Union negotiations concentrate on job security issues38| MC | Bull |Short-term rates low39| BA | Bull |Profits at trough40| BA | Bull |New orders perk up41| BA | Bull |Price inflation abating42| BA | Bull |High labor productivity43| BA | Bull |Plenty unused capacity44| BA | Bull |Business activity moderate45| MC | Bull |Mortgage rates gradually declining46| MC | Bull |Real money growth supply rising47| BA | Bull |Not all industries profitable48| MC | Bull |Monetary attitude relaxed49| BA | Bull |Consumer purchases of soft goods revives50| BA | Bull |Personal income rising faster than prices51| MC | Bull |Steep upward sloping yield curve. Short-term interest rates 100-200 basis points below long-term rates52| MC | Bull |Liquidity in economy and particularily in capital markets53| BA | Bull |High personal savings rate54| MC | Bull |Money flowing into securities and overseas55| BA | Bull |Some raw material prices inch up56| BA | Bull |Business activity up57| MC | Bull |Credit demand picking up58| MC | Bull |Money supply rises more sharply59| MC | Bull |Prime rate records first increase60| MC | Bull |Government and long-term corporate financing needs moderate. Utility financing dominates industrial financing.61| BA | Bull |Consumer purchases of cars, furniture and housing increases62| BA | Bull |Most raw material prices up from lows63| BA | Bull |Housing starts up sharply64| MC | Bull |Bank loans accelerating under pressure of inventory accumulation and capital spending65| MC | Bull |Real money supply should have its maximum rate of growth66| MC | Bull |Bank lending growth and money supply growth rates similar67| BA | Bull |Labor costs increasing68| BA | Bull |Labor productivity peaks69| MC | Bull |Authorities are not under compulsion to restrict credit70| BA | Bull |Inflation lagging71| MC | Bull |Confidence at high levels. Prevailing mood is enjoyment of “the good life”72| BA | Bull |Production capacity tightens73| MC | Bull |Inflation adjustment to actual money supply is modest74| MC | Bull |Moderately upward sloping yield curve. Short-term rates approximately 50-100 basis points less than long-term rates.75| BA | Bull |Corporate capital expansion and improvement projects started76| BA | Bull |Commercial paper market volume is up77| MC | Bull |Prime rate up sharply from lows78| BA | Bear |Substantial reports of poor vendor performance79| MC | Bear |Short term interest rates up significantly80| BA | Bear |Overtime up sharply81| MC | Bear |Real money supply begins to shrink82| BA | Bear |Inflation begins to soar83| MC | Bear |Rate of growth of money supply relative to actual money supply is less84| MC | Bear |Raw or actual money supply shrinks as central bank begins a policy of restraint85| BC | Bear |Profits peak</text>
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<text>James D. McWilliams Business Event DescriptionsBusiness Events</text>
<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">The Business Cycle Events are as defined by James D. McWilliams in his "Investment Clock" concept represent typical events that occur within a business cycle.Event type "BA" stands for "Business activity", event type "MC" stands for "Monetary Cycle" event. Events labeled "Bull" phase occur while market rises, and those labeled "Bear" phase occur while market descends.The various columns can be resorted by clicking on their respective headings, thanks to F. Rinaldi's XFCN Fullsort.(Click here to see item numbers and descriptions)</span></text>
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<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">The Business Cycle Meter is based on James D. McWilliams' concept of an "Investment Clock", as published in past issues of </span><span class="style30">Personal Investing</span><span class="style1">. The concept defines a number of events that when they occur, reveal where the economy is in its current business cycle. </span><span class="style35">What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">You can use this meter to quickly assess whether market ups and downs are simply corrections or real changes in long term trends. Click on the "replay" button to review the headlines that triggered each highlighted event for a specified month. To see how the business cycle is reflected in stock market, click on the "To Hourly" button. (Click here to see chart)</span></text>
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<text>Industrials -Weekly</text>
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<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">This chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial average on a weekly basis.</span><span class="style35">What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">You may notice that in bull markets, the over sold state of the market lasts only a short duration, while there are numerous overbought signals as the market keeps rising. I wonder if the reverse is true in a bear market, where over bought durations are relatively short and over sold signals are frequent as the market dives to a bottom?(Click here to see chart)</span></text>
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<text>Note the first weekly over- sold signal this year!</text>
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<text><span class="style5">eader Participation time:</span><span class="style1">Why has there been an oversold condition in the autumn of the past 9 years? Send your answer to WilliamB43 at AOL and I'll include all the responses I receive in next month's issue.</span></text>
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<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">This chart shows the closing Dow Jones Industrial average on a daily basis.</span><span class="style35">What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">This chart is good for determining when to add to your equity holdings (assuming a buy and hold strategy See the "Portfolios" section for stocks to research further for purchase). A thick Gray line indicates an oversold situation, where new money in the market will work most effectively. A thick Black line indicates an overbought situation where any new funds committed to the equities market will probably not do as well as money market funds until an oversold situation occurs.(Click here to see chart)</span></text>
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<text>Industrials - Hourly</text>
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<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">This chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial average on an hourly basis.The little black squares represent business events that have occurred in the past month. The events above the line are classified as being bearish, forcing the averages line down. The events below the line are classified as being bullish and lifting the averages line up. Click on the little black squares to view the specific business cycle headlines that lifts or depresses the market.</span><span class="style35">What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">For those who buy and hold, this chart means very little. If you like to gamble and pay commissions, you might break even by buying on the thick gray lines and selling on the thick black lines.(Click here to see chart)</span></text>
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<text>09/14/92 Quar July 31:3343547115776.053.882246054</text>
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<text><span class="style35">hat is it?</span><span class="style1">This list of stocks was selected from hundreds of companies who have reported quarterly earnings during the week of Oct 13 thru 17. I only chose the 20 or so most profitable companies, that had the most consistant growth over the past 8 quarters.Click on any company to see the earnings, revenue and valuation over the past two years.This section is still under construction, so send me so ideas of what you might like to see here. Also, send me stock candidates that you would like to see earnings reports for.Future editions will eventually include other fundamentals so that the investor can get a more complete profile of each company -- stay tuned! (click here to see the list of companies)</span></text>
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<text>Click on any line to see chart of earnings, revenue and valuation of that company.</text>
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<text><span class="style1"></span><span class="style35">What is it?</span><span class="style1">This chart shows the past two years of quarterly earnings (black bars) and revenues (white bars) and price to earnings ratio (X's) for the stock listed at the top of the card. The scale on the left is the P/E ratio scale that indicates that if the quarterly earning for any quarter were maintained for X number of years, the </span><span class="style30">value</span><span class="style1"> of the stock would theoretically double. </span><span class="style35"> What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">Use these charts as a starting point for finding low priced growth stocks that you can buy (using oversold indicator in "Charts" section of course) and hold.Future editions will start to provide more fundamentals of featured stocks. -- Stay tuned!(click here to see the chart)</span></text>
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<text><span class="style1"></span><span class="style35">What is it?</span><span class="style1">This chart shows the past two years of quarterly earnings (black bars) and revenues (white bars) and price to earnings ratio (X's) for the stock listed at the top of the card. The scale on the left is the P/E ratio scale that indicates that if the quarterly earning for any quarter were maintained for X number of years, the </span><span class="style30">value</span><span class="style1"> of the stock would theoretically double. </span><span class="style35"> What's it good for?</span><span class="style1">Use these charts as a starting point for finding low priced growth stocks that you can buy (using oversold indicator in "Charts" section of course) and hold.Future editions will start to provide more fundamentals of featured stocks. -- Stay tuned!(click here to see the chart)</span></text>
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<text><span class="style1">conomic and monetary events over the past month continue to indicate we are still in a recessionary period. There are mixed signs indicating we are either in the bear phase of this cycle, or the bull phase of the next cycle. Check the Weekly Charts to see the first oversold indication this year. Check the Portfolio section for stocks worthy of your consideration for purchase during this buying opportunity.To see the graphical representation of where we are in the current business cycle, select "</span><span class="style44"><a href="#" class="group">To_Monitor</a></span><span class="style1">" in the Services window.To see specific headlines that indicate where we are in the current business cycle, select "</span><span class="style44"><a href="#" class="group">To_Headlines</a></span><span class="style1">" in the Services window.To see James D. McWilliams description of the business cycle steps, select "</span><span class="style44"><a href="#" class="group">To_Descriptions</a></span><span class="style1">" in the Services window.</span></text>
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<text><span class="style1">his section has been enhanced this month. This month the "prettiest" earnings reports are those of the most profitable companies reporting earnings during the week of Oct 13-17. Along with Revenue and Earnings for each quarter, the P/E ratio is also shown. The trick is to find the best looking stair step for earnings and revenues, yet with a P/E ratio that isn't out of sight.To see the stocks featured in this issue, click on "</span><span class="style44"><a href="#" class="group">to_stock_list</a></span><span class="style1">" in the Services menu.To see a display of quarterly earnings for a selected stock. click on the "</span><span class="style44"><a href="#" class="group">to_earnings_chart</a></span><span class="style1">" in the Services menu.</span></text>
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<text>To see the average of thirty popular industrials on an hourly basis, select "Hourly" in Services window.To see the average of thirty popular industrials on a daily basis, select "Daily" in Services window.To see the average of thirty popular industrials on a weekly basis, select "Weekly" in Services window.Over bought (thick black line) and Over sold (thick grey line) designations were formed using nominal short term, medium term and long term cycles. Elaboration on how this was done and how you can take advantage of this INFO will be published in future editions. -- Stay tuned!</text>
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